There is great optimism about another strong year for the Australian property market in 2024.
It comes off the back of 12 months that defied nearly all negative predictions.
Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 13 interest rate rises in 18 months against a rising tide of inflation, the national median house price climbed to a new peak of $1,084,855 in 2023.
Adelaide was as strong a performer as any capital city with its median price rising to $862,078.
It joined Brisbane and Perth in achieving record median price levels.
According to a report from Domain, building or buying a new home has become more popular in Adelaide over the last 12 months.
A four-bedroom, two-bathroom double garage house was the property type most desired.
Unley, Goodwood, Bridgewater, Stirling and North Adelaide were the most in-demand suburbs.
Many young families looked to take advantage of moving into an area zoned to Glenunga International High School.
There was also a trend towards the search for more affordable rural housing.
Some 42% of regional enquiries in SA originated from Adelaide.
What influenced Australian property in 2023
There were a number of factors that fuelled the price surge which delivered a perfect storm in the property market that not everyone saw coming.
Lack of supply
A serious lack of supply was due largely to a construction sector which could not keep up with demand.
This was exacerbated by the tightest rental market Australia has ever seen.
Supply chain issues, skills shortages and rising costs all contributed to slowing the completion rate of new homes.
Australia opened its doors in the post-COVID era as more than 500,000 migrants flooded our shores.
This contributed significantly to the challenging rental market.
And it combined with the lack of housing supply to send property prices north.
Many people anticipated the fixed-rate cliff would collapse the housing market sending many property owners into early foreclosure.
But it did not trigger a spike in distressed listings as feared.
The majority of homeowners coped with a switch to variable rates.
Mortgage arrears experienced a slight climb but remain near historic lows.
What is likely to influence Australian property in 2024?
Economic predictions are fraught with danger as the 2023 experience proves.
We can only use historic trends and what we know is coming to help make some informed forecasts.
Here is what we know.
The Albanese government has flagged its intention to “bring migration back to sustainable levels”, predicting it will decline substantially over the next financial year.
But the recent arrival of vast numbers from overseas is unlikely to see any immediate reduction in competition for housing with the recent influx having a cumulative long-term effect on the property market.
The government announced on 1 November the establishment of a $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) dedicated to provide additional funding to support and increase social and affordable housing.
The initiative is aimed at the needs of Indigenous communities and housing services for women, children and veterans and is unlikely to have a significant impact on property values in the middle and upper end of the market.
The government’s Help to Buy scheme is expected to be launched, designed to help more than 40,000 people break into the housing market.
It involves an equity contribution of up to 40% for new homes and 30% for existing homes.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced in December it would maintain the mortgage serviceability buffer at 3%.
The decision was made taking into account ongoing cost of living pressures, local and global economic outlooks.
Here is more on what we anticipate.
Further rises in interest rates would likely have some impact on the property market, notwithstanding the fact that it has robustly withstood most regulatory measures to date.
More likely is some easing in rates toward the end of the year which could further stimulate property.
Unemployment levels remain at multi-decade lows and while any rise could slow the property market, it is likely to be offset by wage growth and could be further relieved in the event of a fall in interest rates.
More buyers are likely to move into cheaper suburbs and rural areas seeking affordability.
The massive housing build in Mt Barker is one example of this.
Housing density rules
Mt Barker is also a shining example of the YIMBY (yes, in my back yard) replacing the NIMBY (not in my back yard).
Australia is likely to see more examples of high-density housing to accomodate its rising population.
The 2024 Australian property forecast
Australia is predicted to witness a further climb in property prices of between 5-7% in 2024.
The undervalued markets of Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are likely to continue their bullish trend.
Adelaide could again lead the way and is capable of an increase of up to 8%.
Unit prices in Adelaide are expected to rise more gently at levels of between 2-3%.
Get a smart property finance strategy
Economic winds always fluctuate.
But property has long remained one of the most reliable and practical investment strategies in Australia.
With predictions of a further rise in property prices in 2024, the clear advice if you are considering entering the market is to do it sooner rather than later.
And when you are ready to take the plunge, you’ll want the best possible loan deal.
That’s precisely when you should contact Calder Finance Broking.
We are specialists in the mortgage broking business.
We deal with hundreds of banks and non-bank lenders every day.
Our commitment to you is this: We will not only prepare you for applying for a home loan, we will walk you through every step of the process, securing you the very best available deal.
A mortgage isn’t just about an interest rate. It’s about your lifestyle and future.
That’s why we’ll also advise you on the most prudent mortgage strategies for your unique circumstances and goals.
We pride ourselves on leading our clients into the future with structure, financial stability and confidence.
Contact us today to discuss all of your financial needs and concerns.
The information contained on this article is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser.
Taxation, legal and other matters referred to on this website are of a general nature only and are based on Calder Wealth Management’s interpretation of laws existing at the time and should not be relied upon in place of appropriate professional advice. Those laws may change from time to time.
Calder specialises in wealth management with a focus on advice, investment, sustainability, insurance and finance.
Written by David Titley from Calder Finance Broking, for more information please visit the Calder Finance website. Please note that Calder Finance Broking Pty Ltd is a Corporate Credit Representative of BLSSA Pty Ltd ABN 69 117 651 760 ACL 391237.